2008 and "a that"

As we approach the end of 2007 it is useful to look forward into the forthcoming year and try and predict what may well happen. This year which we’re about to embark upon will be an important one for most of the civilized world. We will see a new President elected in the United States almost certainly this new President will either be Hillary Clinton or Obama Barak. By the way it will mark a departure in that the largest and most powerful nation in the world will be governed by a woman for the first time or by a black man for the first time. Personally my prediction is that Hillary Clinton will be elected, at least we know what she is likely to be like whereas we have no idea how Mr. Barak will perform once he gains highest office. I also take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that Bill Clinton will be available as a wise counsel in her administration.

As 2007 draws to a close Pakistan has been thrown into complete turmoil by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. We have to believe that some good will come from this, and that there will be a backlash against Al Qaeda out in Pakistan, and the government, whoever they may be, have the resolve to track down these people in the lawless tribal lands. Pakistan will undoubtedly be a huge foreign policy challenge for the U.S. and UK administrations. The thought of a Nuclear Weapon getting into the hands of those terrorists who would slay thousands in the name of religious zeal is something that the West cannot contemplate.

Back at home in the United Kingdom, I cannot see the year ending any better for Mr. Brown and his associates. I do not predict that he will ever be elected by the public as prime minister. I also suspect that labour party are far too astute to allow him to preside over the long-term demise of their party, which will be the case if they allow him to go on too long, or even if they allow him to be defeated at an election. Despite this I have a more balanced view of the economy than the press or many of the pundits are predicting. I do not believe that house prices will stall for all that long, as the setback in recent months is created by extraordinary market forces which are nothing to do with the laws of supply and demand in the housing market. It is extraordinary that a newspaper can on the same page carry an article regarding the fall in house prices and at the same time carry another article the bemoaning the fact that this country is so short of new housing. My prediction is that there will be an election in late October this year and that the conservative policy will sweep two power with a majority of around 70 to 100.

Without debating the issue of whether we should have invaded Iraq or not, I think this year will prove that the post-war strategy has been absolutely flawed and that the Americans will reap the benefits of remaining committed to the defeat of the insurgency by adopting the tactics that we British or so good at. Our retreat from Basra is more about the lack of resources and economic strength than anything else. Bear in mind that the Romans had to have a standing army of 50,000 to quell insurgency in Britain who at the time had a population that only amounted to a few millions. In Afghanistan we will soldier on to very little avail, however it will serve a purpose in that it is a good testing ground for the military and its equipment and if casualties can be kept at something below 50 year which if looked at practically is only a marginal increase in the peacetime casualty rate from all sources in a bored and underutilized military, and if into the bargain we can stem the flow of heroin in this land then that would be a bonus.

I hope that 2008 will also see a realistic response to climate change. Having said that, it is very difficult to see what a realistic response could entail, it will require grand and long sighted strategies such as of the Victorians would have been good at. I fear that today’s society will not be able to develop the discipline needed for such a response. Will it matter very much in the long run when the planet is destined for extinction sooner or later?

The never ending question of the status of Scotland will continue to exercise our minds throughout this coming year. I suspect that the success of the Nationalists is more to do with the lack of a credible opposition than it is to do with any of the policies that are being offered by the SNP. Whether Scotland has its independence or not, is a matter which will be determined by the English and not the Scots. It was ever thus, and when Scotland gets tiresome for England, they will be cast loose with similar words that were used by Edward I when he said “bon bosoigne fait qy de merde se deliver* ”, as he handed over the Great Seal of Scotland in 1327. Devolution is not new!


*According to Lawrence James in his book “The Warrior Race” a fair translation is “getting rid of a turd is a job well done”