Autumn

Well we are nearly three quarters of the way through the year. I did not foresee the huge financial turbulence that we have just come through nor, as it happens, did many others. We are just about to start the Labour party conference and everyone wants to know what will happen to our great leader Gordon Brown. It will be a miracle if he survives to the end of the year. It is difficult to talk to anyone who is not thoroughly disappointed in him. I keep asking people hoping to finds someone who may lend him some support but my enquiries are always in vain. Despite this you hear government ministers defying gravity as it were by insisting that the public want him to continue. However this only shows how out of touch they are with the popular mood. This angers the electorate and drives the support for labour even further down.

Many commentators say that we should not change leaders in the middle of a crisis. My view is that we must as we have enough problems which merit long term solutions. A premier who is focussed only on the next election is a liability. We need a regime that will have at least two full terms. This year has seen the World become a dangerous place with confrontations likely on two fronts – Russia and Iran. What we need now is strong leadership!

The really big issue for this country is energy security. We have had ten years of a flawed policy and we will start to pay the penalty. Look out for disruption of supplies either in late 2009 or 2010.

2008 and "a that"

As we approach the end of 2007 it is useful to look forward into the forthcoming year and try and predict what may well happen. This year which we’re about to embark upon will be an important one for most of the civilized world. We will see a new President elected in the United States almost certainly this new President will either be Hillary Clinton or Obama Barak. By the way it will mark a departure in that the largest and most powerful nation in the world will be governed by a woman for the first time or by a black man for the first time. Personally my prediction is that Hillary Clinton will be elected, at least we know what she is likely to be like whereas we have no idea how Mr. Barak will perform once he gains highest office. I also take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that Bill Clinton will be available as a wise counsel in her administration.

As 2007 draws to a close Pakistan has been thrown into complete turmoil by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. We have to believe that some good will come from this, and that there will be a backlash against Al Qaeda out in Pakistan, and the government, whoever they may be, have the resolve to track down these people in the lawless tribal lands. Pakistan will undoubtedly be a huge foreign policy challenge for the U.S. and UK administrations. The thought of a Nuclear Weapon getting into the hands of those terrorists who would slay thousands in the name of religious zeal is something that the West cannot contemplate.

Back at home in the United Kingdom, I cannot see the year ending any better for Mr. Brown and his associates. I do not predict that he will ever be elected by the public as prime minister. I also suspect that labour party are far too astute to allow him to preside over the long-term demise of their party, which will be the case if they allow him to go on too long, or even if they allow him to be defeated at an election. Despite this I have a more balanced view of the economy than the press or many of the pundits are predicting. I do not believe that house prices will stall for all that long, as the setback in recent months is created by extraordinary market forces which are nothing to do with the laws of supply and demand in the housing market. It is extraordinary that a newspaper can on the same page carry an article regarding the fall in house prices and at the same time carry another article the bemoaning the fact that this country is so short of new housing. My prediction is that there will be an election in late October this year and that the conservative policy will sweep two power with a majority of around 70 to 100.

Without debating the issue of whether we should have invaded Iraq or not, I think this year will prove that the post-war strategy has been absolutely flawed and that the Americans will reap the benefits of remaining committed to the defeat of the insurgency by adopting the tactics that we British or so good at. Our retreat from Basra is more about the lack of resources and economic strength than anything else. Bear in mind that the Romans had to have a standing army of 50,000 to quell insurgency in Britain who at the time had a population that only amounted to a few millions. In Afghanistan we will soldier on to very little avail, however it will serve a purpose in that it is a good testing ground for the military and its equipment and if casualties can be kept at something below 50 year which if looked at practically is only a marginal increase in the peacetime casualty rate from all sources in a bored and underutilized military, and if into the bargain we can stem the flow of heroin in this land then that would be a bonus.

I hope that 2008 will also see a realistic response to climate change. Having said that, it is very difficult to see what a realistic response could entail, it will require grand and long sighted strategies such as of the Victorians would have been good at. I fear that today’s society will not be able to develop the discipline needed for such a response. Will it matter very much in the long run when the planet is destined for extinction sooner or later?

The never ending question of the status of Scotland will continue to exercise our minds throughout this coming year. I suspect that the success of the Nationalists is more to do with the lack of a credible opposition than it is to do with any of the policies that are being offered by the SNP. Whether Scotland has its independence or not, is a matter which will be determined by the English and not the Scots. It was ever thus, and when Scotland gets tiresome for England, they will be cast loose with similar words that were used by Edward I when he said “bon bosoigne fait qy de merde se deliver* ”, as he handed over the Great Seal of Scotland in 1327. Devolution is not new!


*According to Lawrence James in his book “The Warrior Race” a fair translation is “getting rid of a turd is a job well done”

Conservatives a year on

What a difference a year has made. The webcameron site is much more professional and doing a great job in keeping DCs activities in the public eye. Clearly the Conservatives are looking more like a party that could win. They just need to ensure that they do not make any mistakes during the rest of this Parliament. Cameron is definately growing in stature and is scoring goals each week at PMQs. He needs to be careful not to be the man who pushes Brown over the edge.

Webcameron

It is truly amazing that we manage to make a complete pigs breakfast of everything that we try and do as we get older. Maybe it is first stage Alzeimers but these days I can so easily be distracted and find that I have left something that I came for behind.

Well that would be my excuse but what excuse has David Cameron and Boris Johnson. Have a look at their video cast on webcameron. The contrast is staggering! We have David doing small sound sized bytes that are almost single line messages, then we have a long ramble by Boris who is showing us arround his office. I have to say neither piece exudes a great deal of confidence that they could run any great Minstry of State

Still nothing wrong with Charlie

I thought that Charles Kennedy did a sterling job on the channel 4 programme that he made on the political process in the UK. I really thought that much of what he said was absolutely on the money. This is the sort of political debate that we need more of. I am sure that party must really be regretting its decision to replace him as leader.

Scandal in the wind - Outlook is not resigning

Well it has been an interesting week for the government. It seems impossible for people to go on without taking ownership for their failings. I have no doubt that Charles Clarke should resign over the release of foreign prisoners. What were we doing keeping them locked up at our expense in any event.

The John Prescott affair is more difficult. It is his affair after all, but if it shows more than usual lack of judgment or abuse of power he should also go. The lady in question looked pretty wretched and abandoned on her interview with the Mail. However one cannot overlook the fact that she is being advised by the odious Max!

One thing that becomes clear in all this is that if we are to have more of a presidential style of leadership, which undoubtedly under Blair we do, we should adopt the American principle of only having 2 terms. Power as we know absolutely corrupts!

" Words" a devalued currency

The concept of words as a weapon of war appeals to our finest ideals of freedom. They are not costly, enduring when written down and have in the past made a difference. However I should like to pose a question: does modern media devalue the concept? Perhaps the ease of publishing and being heard makes us less likely to be heard. It seems no matter what the severity of revelation, peerages for loans or lying about weapons of mass destruction, consequences are minimal. Amongst the media hype does anyone really listen to the words and weigh their true implication on our society and lives? I think not!

Do we need all this Government?

Daily it becomes clear that the outcome of New Labour is simply to add much more government interference to our lives. It is pretty obvious that Doctors are no longer in charge of our healthcare and that the healthcare we get is determined by the centre with a greater mind on politics than on the health of the individual.

We constantly hear that privatisation of parts of the NHS will make everyone more competitive whilst healthcare remains free at the point of delivery. What a load of old tosh! Private Industry is fast becoming as inefficient as Government depts were. The reason for this is to do with size and very little else. The bigger the organisation the less efficient it is likely to be. A friend of mine lately went for a referral to a consultant as she had private health insurance. She had to pay £20 that she could ill afford for the referrall, which was after all was saving the NHS money - where is the sense in that? Once upon a time you could go and buy the health services you wanted, not anymore! The NHS has become the gatekeeper and in any other industry would be seen as anti-competitive.

Almost every aspect of our lives is changing due to Government interference. The criminal justice system is now designed to elicit pleas of guilty in return for lenient sentences. All of this no doubt to make the numbers look good.

I could go on but I won't

Highest Heist

The public are not really outraged at Britain's largest bank robbery. Most people I have talked to have a sneaking admiration for the crooks. Undoubtedly this will never be shared by the poor family that had to undergo the terrifying ordeal of being kidnapped as part of the plan. It is pretty difficult to have a lot of the sympathy for the good guys. Securitas builds a facility that clearly has something valuable in it, and then just in case you did not get it they put a sign on the building "Securitas Cash Management." I seem to think that a prevention of car crime ad running in the UK makes fun of the poor motorist who leaves valuables on the back seat!

Anyway the kidnap the managers family is such obvious ploy that one would think that it would definitely be a job posting for an out of towner with no family. I would love to see the risk assessment for this facility. One would also think the insurers would not be so silly.

I also find it difficult ot believe that part of the gang could be so stupid as to be caught trying to deposit some money in a building society! My view is either they are or it is a cleverly constructed decoy.

A Proper Charlie

Prince Charles is in trouble again with the disclosures in the court case relating to the publication of his personal journal. I would like to have some sympathy for him. I certainly do not have a problem with him supporting causes and getting involved in politics, particularly if he has dissident or contrarian views. I would rather have him do stuff and annoy politicians than stand idly by. The constitutional arguments about the Monarchy not getting involved in politics are pure bullshit.

However sending out up to 19 photocopies of your journal and bleating about privacy - I ask you!

Hello Brits

It is amazing that after 53 years I can truly say that British music is as good as I can remember. Everyone that was nominated for a Brit should be really happy that they are in great company this year.

Its just as well that something is working for us because everything else is pretty grim. On the mighty scale global terrorism, global pandemics and global warming seem to be major challenges for us. On the less than mighty scale the way that all service in the UK now seems to have deteriorated to an incomprehensible level is extremely worrying not to say irritating. Yesterday I watched management in a Holiday Inn ignore customers in favour of doing performance appraisals! The more we spend on customer service training the worse we seem to become. Perhaps you just can't do good customer stuff unless you have basic good manners as a pre-existing competency

January 2006 is over

Good riddance to it - this proabably has been the worst month of my life so far. A year which could have started with so much promise turns out completely terrible. So what do I make of it? Is it simply bad luck or have I brought this upon myself. Difficult to say. Napoleon said "bring me lucky generals." It would have been better if he said something about how to turn things around when luck deserts you. Anyone got any ideas?

Hollow sacrifice

It really brings it home when you see what we have practically achieved in Iraq if last nights channel programme is to be believed. The deals that have been done with the Mahdi army militia allowing them to be the real law makes an absolute farce of the "regime change" rationale for going to war. It was bad enough that we had to disguise our motives as a pre-emptive strike against the possible use of WMD and lie to our soldiers about their mission.

Now it seems that we are set to withdraw and leave behind a radical Islamic state making all the deaths and woundings a hollow sacrifice. I agree with General Rose - the politicians should not be allowed to walk away!

Nothing wrong with Charlie

Charles Kennedy was an acceptable face to lead the LibDems. Even though he has a problem with alchohol it does not mean that he would be unable to lead the his party.